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Special Report: Red Sea Recovery Signals Are Strong

Capacity through Bab el-Mandeb has doubled since August 2025, but the return isn't even — and it isn't guaranteed. Asia-Mediterranean has come back, North Europe largely hasn't, and every carrier commitment on the table remains reversible.

Shippers should tender by string and direction, not by trade lane.

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A quarter of deep-sea traffic is back. The other three-quarters are the story.

Weekly deployed capacity crossing Bab el-Mandeb is up 108% year-on-year, but still sits at just 23% of pre-crisis levels. The recovery is being led by fewer, larger vessels rather than more services — and it's landing unevenly: some lanes have shaved 11 days off transit time, others have barely moved, and Asia–North America remains at zero Suez transits entirely.

Xeneta's latest Red Sea report tracks the carrier-by-carrier sequence of returns through 2026, the early signals that predict the next move, and what it means for your next tender.

What's inside:

  1. How feeder and regional carriers kept the Red Sea connected through the 2024–2025 diversion years
  2. Transit time and reliability data showing why the same port pair can now run two different networks — Cape and Suez — weeks apart
  3. The latest carrier move: MSC's 24 August restructuring of four services, and what its advisory does and doesn't commit to
  4. Three changes to make before you go to market: buying the string (not the lane), planning for arrival waves, and why 2027 shouldn't be priced off announcements alone

Access Your Copy

The recovery is real. Betting your tender on it isn't — yet.

Audit which strings your contracts actually name. Benchmark the Cape-vs-Suez gap on your key lanes before you price your next RFQ. Build routing decisions around confirmed capacity, not announced capacity.

 

Xeneta closes the gap between what carriers commit to and what actually sails.

 

Access the latest Red Sea intelligence report for free (form above). Alternatively, if you need tailored insight into which strings to name, buffer, or wait out across your own network, our Advisory team can help — analysis built around your contracts, carriers, and procurement timeline.

Speak to our advisory team

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