01The budget comes first
Defensible, not 100% predictable
The freight budget comes first, and the tender inherits its assumptions. It sets the rate target, the volume plan and the ceiling you negotiate against.
In 2026 the market moved anyway. Oversupply met disruption, volatility returned, and surcharges and allocation cuts repriced contracts that were meant to be fixed. Finance still wants one number. Procurement has to defend it.
This report is built for that conversation.
02Inside the report
The questions your finance team will ask, answered
Market and capacity
01- When might ocean rates soften in 2027?
- What is the next black swan to model?
Carriers and service
02- Which emergency surcharges are legitimate, and how do you challenge them?
- How is schedule reliability measured, and can carriers game it?
Budgeting for 2027
03- How do you budget when conditions change within three months?
- How do you handle a finance team that thinks ocean freight is unforecastable?
Contracts, free time and ETS
04- Should tenders wait for a softer post-Chinese New Year market?
- Can an index protect overflow above MQC?
- How do you price free days?
How Xeneta supports you
05- Where the data comes from, and how it is validated.
What happens next
06- Four moves before the 2027 Outlooks land, and a watch list for the quarter ahead.