The Xeneta Weekly Ocean Container Shipping Market Update provides data and intelligence including the latest freight rate and capacity movements across global trades with supporting insight from Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst.
Xeneta analyst insight – Freight rates into US reach post-Hormuz crisis peak – but no collapse is in sight.
Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst:
“Spot rates from Far East to the US ticked up again on 1 October, but we can say with a level of confidence that the market has reached its post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026.
“Part of the reason behind the turn is port congestion in Asia easing as typhoon season winds down, compounded by Golden Week and national holidays in China lowering exports in the first week of October.
“Despite spot rates only increasing 1.4% into US West Coast and 0.7% into US East Coast, they are still up 344% and 335% respectively compared to pre-Hormuz crisis on 28 February.
“From Far East to North Europe and Mediterranean, spot rates peaked much earlier and have been falling since the start of July, with further declines entering October.”
Forecast for remainder of 2026:
“Demand is not strong and rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse, so shippers should expect to pay elevated freight costs for the remainder of the year.
“There will be nuances in the decline between the US trades however, with rates into US East Coast potentially falling harder than into the US West Coast. The spread between these US trades is USD 3,177 per FEU compared to around USD 772 pre-Hormuz crisis, with US East Coast the more expensive. The spread will narrow as the broader decline takes hold in the remainder of the year, driven mainly by a harder fall into the US East Coast due to its more elevated starting point.
“Rolling forward three months, that could see spot rates into the US East Coast in the range of USD 6,000-7,000 and West Coast around USD 4,500-5,500.
“That would be a sizeable correction, but not a collapse. We can also not discount further major disruptions or geo-politic conflict that would change the situation dramatically once again.”
Data highlights
Market average spot rates – 1 October 2026:
-
Far East to US West Coast: USD 8,346 per FEU (40ft container)
-
Far East to US East Coast: USD 11,523 per FEU
-
Far East to North Europe: USD 3,726 per FEU
-
Far East to Mediterranean: USD 4,105 per FEU
-
North Europe to US East Coast: USD 2,893 per FEU
Change from a week ago (since 24 Sep 2026):
-
Far East to US West Coast: +1.4% (USD +115 per FEU)
-
Far East to US East Coast: +0.7% (USD +78 per FEU)
-
Far East to North Europe: -2.1% (USD -79 per FEU)
-
Far East to Mediterranean: -4.6% (USD -197 per FEU)
-
North Europe to US East Coast: -2.2% (USD -64 per FEU)
Change since pre-Hormuz (28 February 2026 baseline):
-
Far East to US West Coast: +344.2%
-
Far East to US East Coast: +334.7%
-
Far East to North Europe: +67.9%
-
Far East to Mediterranean: +23.3%
-
North Europe to US East Coast: +95.9%
US East-West Coast spread
-
28 Feb 2026: USD 772 per FEU (pre-Hormuz)
-
1 Oct 2026: USD 3,177 per FEU
Ends
