Rates were forecast to fall 5–10%. They rose 15%. Supply was forecast to grow 3–4%. It grew 1%. On 27 February, Dubai Airport came under missile attack and 12% of global air cargo capacity was withdrawn overnight.
The air freight market in 2026 has been unlike anything forecast — and H2 brings a new set of questions.
Xeneta's Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw and Lead Airfreight Analyst Wenwen Zhang break down what actually happened across all seven themes from the December outlook, and what the revised forecast means for your procurement strategy. Download to uncover:
- Why spot rates are plateauing — and whether long-term contracts are worth locking in now
- How AI-driven demand became the year's strongest growth engine on the Transpacific
- What the EU de-minimis shake-up from 1 July means for e-commerce capacity and rates
- Whether the mode shift back to ocean will happen in 2026 — and the answer may surprise you
Prefer to hear it direct from the analysts?
Watch the on-demand webinar — Xeneta's Chief Analysts walk through the key findings, what surprised them, and what it means for your H2 strategy.
Watch on demand →
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