100% of Retail Hit by Disruption: What the Data – and Your Peers – Are Doing About It

For retail procurement leaders, 2026 was supposed to be the year the turbulence eased.

Instead, it has delivered a compounding cascade of disruption that has left supply chains stretched, budgets broken, and the tools teams rely on to absorb shocks suddenly unavailable at the moment they were needed most.

In fact, 100% of retailers lost money to supply chain disruption in the past year.

Every single one.

The question isn't whether you're absorbing cost. It's whether you see it coming or find out after it hits.

Data taken from Xeneta's survey of 450 procurement and supply chain leaders (conducted in partnership with Vanson Bourne).

When the Safety Valve Closed

Retail supply chains have a well-established response to ocean freight disruption: where possible, shift modes to air.

During the Red Sea crisis, that logic held. Brands that had pre-defined what moves by air, under which conditions, and at what commercial threshold were able to protect launch windows and service levels while others scrambled.

The Middle East conflict, which began on February 28, broke that playbook.

Within weeks of the strikes on Iran, airspace closures across the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain were triggered simultaneously. Middle Eastern carriers, including Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad, are among the most important freighter operators on the Far East to Europe corridor. When their hubs went offline, global air cargo capacity fell 18% within 24 hours. Around 25% of China-Europe air cargo capacity transits through Middle Eastern hubs.

That capacity did not reroute.

Much of it disappeared.

As can be expected, air freight rates on Asia-Europe corridors surged immediately. South Asia to Europe air freight rates rose approximately 50%

Unlike the Red Sea crisis, where air freight stepped in to fill the gap left by weakened ocean networks, this disruption hit both modes at once. Ocean freight faced renewed surcharges and rerouting pressure. Air freight, the relief valve, had its own capacity removed. For retail teams caught between the two, the options were worse than at any point in the previous two years of disruption.

"This is the world we are living in, and the reality for businesses facing one new challenge after another."

Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer, Xeneta

Tariff Whiplash and the Inventory Trap

The Middle East conflict arrived on top of a sector already exhausted by tariff disruption. The stop-start pattern of 2025, with front-loading ahead of tariff increases followed by sharp demand drops and excess stock, left retail procurement and supply chain teams in a structurally exposed position. For fashion and apparel, McKinsey estimates tariffs drove short-term sourcing price increases of 35% for apparel and 37% for leather goods. The loss of the Section 321 de minimis exemption added further pressure on e-commerce fulfilment models.

The result is a sector absorbing margin pressure from multiple directions simultaneously: higher sourcing costs, elevated freight rates on rerouted lanes, fuel surcharges, and now an air freight premium at the exact moment spot capacity tightened, with over half of respondents already raising consumer prices to offset higher costs.

What Your Peers Are Telling Us

Of the 450 procurement and supply chain professionals surveyed for The 2026 Freight Report, 93 are retail leaders – and their responses reveal a sector absorbing significant strain, with striking gaps between the disruption being experienced and the tools available to manage it.

The data also reveals a sector that remains more relationship-dependent than data-driven. 54% of retail respondents describe their freight procurement approach as primarily relationship-driven. Only 30% operate a mostly or entirely data and tool-driven model, below the cross-sector average of 34%. When rates move daily and capacity disappears overnight, the teams that navigate best are those with independent, real-time visibility into where markets actually are.

The specific vulnerabilities retail respondents identified tell the fuller story.

40% cite lack of reliable internal data as a key challenge, well above the 29% cross-sector average. 35% report limited visibility into market rates versus contracted rates. 38% face high costs from rigid annual or fixed-cycle tendering. And 41% say leadership does not view procurement or supply chain as a strategic priority, above the cross-sector average of 36%.

The Freight Market in 2026: Where Things Stand

Fuel surcharges have compounded further since the Iran conflict began. Air freight capacity is partially recovering as carriers reroute through Muscat and Jeddah, but all movements remain subject to short-notice disruption – drone strikes near Dubai Airport have already caused temporary suspensions for instance, demonstrating how quickly a nominally open hub can become inaccessible.

When you consider that 33% of retail respondents were already being forced into last-minute mode shifts at inflated costs before the current crisis arrived, the stakes become clear: in a market where both ocean and air are under simultaneous pressure, the cost of being reactive is higher than it has ever been.

What Retail Procurement Teams Can Do Now

95% of retail respondents have at least some appetite to modernise their procurement approach. The challenge is acting before the next disruption reveals an even wider gap.

The organisations pulling ahead are not overhauling everything at once. They are making targeted shifts: replacing carrier-provided rate data with independent benchmarks on key lanes; pre-defining the triggers and commercial thresholds that justify a mode shift to air; and building scenario plans alongside annual budgets rather than in response to emergencies.

Air freight, when used strategically, is one of the most powerful tools available to retail procurement. The brands that protected availability and launch windows during the Red Sea crisis did so because they had already answered the mode-shift question before the crisis began. While the current disruption has closed that window for this tender season, the next opportunity to prepare is already here: define your mode-shift triggers and commercial thresholds before the next crisis forces the decision for you.

Discover more about how Xeneta helps retail procurement teams stay ahead of freight volatility here.