Gemini Cooperation announces service return to Red Sea - Xeneta analyst update

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announce the ME11 service, operating under Gemini Cooperation, will commence full loop transits via Suez Canal from mid-February.

Link to official announcement.

The below insight on the Gemini Cooperation announcement is provided by Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Senior Shipping Analyst:

"Gemini Cooperation announcing a full loop service via Suez Canal is significant because it means Hapag-Lloyd are now more aligned with alliance partner Maersk in terms of returning to the Red Sea.

(Note: Maersk has previously announced Red Sea transits for ships operating outside Gemini Cooperation).  

"All ships on this Gemini ME11 service are operated by Maersk,  but it still means Hapag-Lloyd will have cargo onboard. Perhaps it is surprising given rising tensions in Middle East and CMA CGM recently reversing a decision to return two of its services to the region, but the added assurance of naval protection may have helped Hapag-Lloyd take this important step.

"Average ship size on the Gemini ME11 service connecting India and Middle East with the Mediterranean is 15 500 TEU, so these are big ships and close to double the average capacity of ships on CMA CGM's Indamex and Maersk's MECL1 services, which are now also transiting Suez Canal.

"The fact Gemini has chosen to return large vessels is important for two reasons. Firstly, the bigger the ship, the more cargo is onboard and potentially the higher the risk. But also, returning vessels to the Red Sea of this size on the IMX service will free up 31 000 TEU of capacity due to full loops via Suez Canal rather than Cape of Good Hope reducing transit times by two weeks, down to 70 days.

"Freeing up this much capacity will not help carriers in keeping freight rates elevated in 2026, with average spot rates from India West Coast to Mediterranean already down -16% since 1 January. The capacity headache will get even worse if Gemini look at Asia-Mediterranean services next and likelihood for other carriers to follow suit."

For regular updates on the return of container shipping to the Red Sea, follow the dedicated Xeneta new page here.