Middle East Conflict - FAQs

Emergency surcharges are commercial items open to negotiation, not automatic entitlements. Start with your contract: if you hold an all-inclusive rate, you have grounds to challenge additional charges. For formal force majeure claims, involve your legal team.

Where surcharges are being applied, Xeneta's done-deal data is your strongest lever. It shows what is actually being paid across the market — if a surcharge isn't being universally applied, that's objective evidence for your pushback conversation. Note that war risk surcharges ($800–$4,000/container depending on lane and equipment) are not yet in Xeneta's done-deal data as of 4 March; expect them to flow through in the April–May billing cycle.

For the longer term, index-linked contracts remove this problem structurally — rates move with the market automatically, eliminating the surcharge dispute cycle entirely. 

It's a fair challenge, and one many shippers are questioning right now. Force Majeure may legitimately excuse a forwarder from SLA obligations during an extraordinary event, but whether that same clause also entitles them to pass through higher rates depends entirely on a specific contract language. The two are not automatically linked.

Review contracts carefully with legal counsel. Then use Xeneta's data to verify whether the rate increases being charged actually reflect the market, if they don't, you have an objective, data-backed basis for that commercial conversation.

Xeneta does not provide legal advice. 

First, check your contract — if you hold an all-inclusive rate, you can question the surcharge directly. Then use Xeneta's data to verify whether the amount being charged reflects what the market is actually paying; if it doesn't, that's your negotiating evidence.

Looking ahead, treat fuel as a standalone budget line, not a rounding error — on some MEA-linked lanes it now exceeds 20% of total ocean cost. To get ahead of future announcements, track Rotterdam and Singapore VLSFO spot prices weekly.

These are the two major global bunker hubs where carriers purchase their fuel, so prices there directly feed into carrier cost calculations — and surcharge announcements typically follow with a 30–60 day lag. If you have high exposure on MEA lanes, renegotiate those surcharge structures now rather than waiting for the next announcement.

Carriers argue that the scale and speed of the current bunker spike goes beyond what quarterly FAF clauses were designed to absorb. Since February 2026, Rotterdam HSFO is up 30%, VLSFO up 26%, and Singapore HSFO up 34% — the sharpest single-week moves since the Red Sea crisis, driven by the Strait of Hormuz disruption constraining crude supply and pushing refining margins to multi-year highs.

Whether that justification holds contractually is a different question — it depends entirely on your specific FAF clause language, and is worth reviewing with legal counsel. In the meantime, use Xeneta's data to check whether the surcharge is being uniformly applied across the market. If it isn't, that's objective leverage for your negotiation.

Xeneta doesn't propose a unified industry standard for surcharge calculation — that's the territory of bodies like the Baltic Exchange or BIMCO. What Xeneta does provide is the benchmarking data that makes surcharge verification possible: done-deal rates showing what is actually being paid in the market, and fuel cost data from the MABUX bunker indices that underpins carrier cost justifications. In practice, that's the most actionable tool available to shippers right now. Xeneta customers ask your Success Manager for the latest data.

 

War risk surcharges are varying by carrier, route, and cargo type and are changing rapidly. Peter Sand indicated on our customer webinar March 11th figures ranging from $800 to $4,000 per container, depending on trade lane and equipment type — but treat these as indicative only and verify directly with your carriers or freight forwarders for current levels.

These surcharges are not yet captured in Xeneta's done-deal data as of 4 March — they will flow through in the April/May billing cycle. Monitor Market Trends on your key lanes to track them as they appear.

Based on Xeneta's fuel surcharge analysis, carriers typically adjust surcharges on a 30 to 60 day lag relative to bunker spot price movements. The current spike occurred in late February/early March 2026, so the full impact is expected to materialise in the April/May billing cycle for most lanes.

Whether a surcharge is contractually valid this quarter is a question for your specific FAF clause language and legal counsel. Xeneta's done-deal data can help validate whether the market basis for any surcharge being claimed is real.

As of 4 March, Jebel Ali is not accessible. Carriers are working across three broad options, each with its own risk profile:

The nearest alternatives are Khor Fakkan (Fujairah area) and Salalah (Oman). Khor Fakkan is attractive for trucking onward into the UAE, but was reported temporarily closed as of 4 March. Salalah has been struck by drones, making it significantly less viable. For both, verify current status before advising customers.

Further out, Colombo (Sri Lanka) and Tanjung Pelepas (Malaysia) are being used as transshipment hubs, though cargo discharged there can only continue by onward vessel, extending lead times considerably.

For East Med routing, MSC and CMA CGM are advertising services via Mersin and Jeddah with truck connections into Iraq and the wider Gulf region.

The situation is changing hourly. Use Xeneta's port congestion map to identify the least congested option at any given time before making a recommendation.

Strait of Hormuz traffic has dropped 70 to 90%, so standard India to Jebel Ali services are not operating normally. The realistic options right now are Khor Fakkan with road onward into the UAE (subject to port status), or Salalah as a transshipment point, though drone attack risk has reduced its viability as of 4 March. For urgent or high-value cargo, air freight is being considered by some shippers as an alternative.

Navasheva is worth noting as context: it spiked from 10% to 63% congestion in 24 hours around 2 to 3 March, illustrating how quickly India's own ports are absorbing displaced Gulf-bound tonnage.

Use Xeneta's congestion map and Market Trends to monitor which routing is viable day by day, as the picture is changing constantly.

Xeneta's approved sources do not specifically address King Abdullah Port or Jeddah as alternatives for UAE-bound cargo. What the analyst briefing does highlight is that alternative ports outside the Arabian Gulf with road/truck connectivity to the UAE are the most viable workaround — Korfakkan was cited as the leading example.

Jeddah is Red Sea-facing and given renewed Houthi attack threats on Red Sea shipping (noted in the briefing), it carries its own risk profile. We recommend raising this specific routing question with our analyst team via #market-analysis-questions for a more informed view.

Xeneta's current data doesn't address this routing specifically. What we can say is that Jeddah is Red Sea-facing, and renewed Houthi attack threats on Red Sea shipping mean it carries its own risk profile that needs to be weighed carefully.

That said, some carriers are advertising East Med services via Mersin with truck connections into the wider Gulf region, which may be a more viable corridor for UAE-bound cargo than a Red Sea routing right now.

For the most current view on this specific routing, we'd recommend speaking with your freight forwarder or carrier directly, and monitoring Xeneta's congestion map for port-level risk along any route you're considering.

The issue is not capacity but insurance. Salalah was struck by drones, and without insurance cover on ship, crew, and cargo, carriers will not call at a port under active threat. What had initially looked like a viable diversion option has effectively been taken off the table.

Verify current port status before making any routing decisions, as the security situation is still evolving.

The 10 to 14 day extension is confirmed, and shippers should treat it as a baseline rather than a ceiling given congestion building at diversion ports. Practically, that means revisiting inventory buffers and safety stock levels now to absorb the extended lead times.

On the carrier side, not all operators are managing Cape of Good Hope operations equally well. Xeneta's Carrier Scorecard lets you benchmark schedule reliability performance so you can have an informed conversation with your LSP about whether they are the right partner for this environment.

For procurement, index-linked contracts remove the need to constantly re-quote as the situation evolves, freeing up time to focus on operational resilience rather than rate negotiations.

Treat the 10 to 14 days as a baseline, not a ceiling. As more cargo is diverted to alternative ports and transshipment hubs, yard density is rising and port efficiency is deteriorating. Peter Sand referenced the Q2 2020 Red Sea rerouting as the precedent, when congestion at Southeast Asian hubs caused significant secondary delays on top of the base detour time.

With one in four arrivals already forecasted to be over seven days delayed at diversion ports, effective transit times are likely to increase further as the crisis continues. Use Xeneta's port congestion map to monitor how conditions are developing on your specific routing.

Xeneta doesn't have specific intelligence on mine-laying activity. What we can confirm is that the IRGC declared the Strait closed on 1 March, traffic dropped 70 to 90%, and all major carriers including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd have suspended Hormuz transits. The root cause, whatever the specific military tactics involved, is the same:

insurance cover on ship, crew and cargo is unavailable, and without it carriers will not transit.

For security-specific intelligence on mine threats, your insurance broker and security advisors are the right contacts.

It's a mix, but the two markets are behaving very differently right now. On the spot side, rates are repricing immediately — if you need to move cargo urgently, expect to agree a new rate reflecting current market conditions. For longer-term contracted volumes, carriers are largely still honouring existing agreements at this stage, but that picture is fluid.

Niall van de Wouw's advice for affected lanes is to postpone longer-term tenders until the market stabilises. For the precise spot vs. contract split on your specific lanes, the Spot Share metric in Xeneta's Air Freight Market Trends is the tool to monitor.

Xeneta's current sources don't confirm Atlantic routing as an active option. What we do know is that pre-crisis load factors on Asia to Europe were already around 80%, leaving limited spare capacity for rerouting, and any Atlantic routing would also need to navigate landing rights agreements between countries.

Niall van de Wouw's broader point is that the industry will find ways to keep cargo moving, but creative routing solutions will come at a cost. Turkish Airlines via Istanbul is one confirmed alternative still operating between Asia and Europe.

For the latest intelligence on Atlantic routing specifically, speak to your freight forwarder or carrier directly.

The disruption removed 16 to 18% of global air cargo capacity almost instantly, with some corridors hit far harder — India lost 50 to 70%+ of capacity as Emirates, Etihad and Qatar all exited simultaneously. On those lanes, rate escalation is already mirroring COVID-era dynamics, with some markets reported to have already doubled.

Recovery will take time even if the situation de-escalates quickly. As Niall van de Wouw put it, the rule of thumb is one day of disruption requires five to seven days to clean up.

For procurement, postpone long-term tenders on affected lanes until the market stabilises, and stay close to your forwarders. Track rates, dynamic load factors and spot share week by week in Xeneta's Air Freight Market Trends.

Xeneta doesn't have specific data on perishable food flows, but the broader picture is severe. Cargo already at Middle East hub airports is effectively stranded, and carriers have stopped receiving new shipments into the region. For time-sensitive perishables, that's a critical situation with no straightforward workaround while the hubs remain compromised.

For the most current operational picture on your specific flows, your carrier or freight forwarder will have the best visibility.

Yes — Xeneta's Air Freight platform covers both corridors. For specific capacity and chargeable weight data on these lanes, access them directly through Air Freight Market Trends or speak to your CSM to arrange a data pull or demo.

Worth noting: carriers on unaffected lanes are already pricing up to capitalise on displaced demand, so these lanes are worth monitoring closely even if they're outside the direct conflict zone.

Xeneta's data is based on done-deal rates — actual rates paid by shippers, including whatever surcharges are contracted into those shipments. So in normal circumstances, surcharges are captured within the rates shown.

However, the very latest emergency surcharges from late February and March 2026 are not yet reflected. They will flow through into done-deal data with a 30 to 60 day lag, meaning the full impact is expected to appear in the April/May billing cycle. Until then, use Xeneta as your baseline and model emergency surcharges as a separate line item.

Carriers do hedge fuel, but strategies vary and are not publicly disclosed. What we can say is that the current bunker spike — Rotterdam HSFO up 30%, VLSFO up 26%, Singapore HSFO up 34% since February 2026 — is the sharpest single-week move since the Red Sea crisis. Even well-hedged carriers will have spot fuel exposure during a shock of this speed and magnitude, so hedging alone won't absorb the full impact.

That said, use Xeneta's done-deal data to check whether surcharges are being applied universally or selectively across the market. If they're not consistent, that's your evidence base for pushing back.

The map is already global, it covers American ports (US East and West Coast, South America) alongside Asia, Europe, the Middle East and beyond.

US ports are not directly affected by the conflict, but indirect ripple effects are possible as Cape of Good Hope re-routing extends Asia–Americas transit times and congestion builds at Southeast Asian transshipment hubs. You can search the map by port or by service string to check the congestion risk on every stop along your specific rotation.

We're working on it!

The map is updating in real time with Xeneta data. If you're seeing an older version, try opening the link in a private/incognito window, or do a hard refresh on the page (Ctrl+Shift+R on Windows, Cmd+Shift+R on Mac). 

 The ratio is: vessels waiting divided by total vessels in port (those at berth plus those waiting). Vessels actively steaming toward the port are shown separately. Average wait days per port are also displayed based on vessels currently there. The colour coding runs from green (low congestion) to red (critical).