XENETA WEEKLY OCEAN CONTAINER MARKET UPDATE – 17.01.26

This week’s update includes insight from Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand on the announcement by Maersk on its first structural return to the trans-Suez route for the MECL service (link to announcement here)

Sand insight on this announcement is below the data highlights.

Data highlights

Market average spot rates – 15 January 2026

Far East to US West Coast: USD 2 702 per FEU (40ft container)
Far East to US East Coast: USD 3 715 per FEU
Far East to North Europe: USD 2 862 per FEU
Far East to Mediterranean: USD 4 735 per FEU
North Europe to US East Coast: USD 1 560 per FEU

Offered capacity (4-week rolling average) – w/c 12 January 2026

Far East to US West Coast: +1.3% from a week ago
Far East to US East Coast: +9.9% from a week ago
Far East to North Europe: +1.3% from a week ago
Far East to Mediterranean: +4.7% from a week ago
North Europe to US East Coast: –5.5% from a week ago

Trade view: FAR EAST to US WEST COAST

Week-on-week:
Spot rates - basically flat from a week ago, up USD14 (0.5%) to USD 2 702 on Jan 15.
Capacity – modest growth (+1.3%) from Jan 8.

Month-on-month:
Spot rates - strong uplift since mid-December +USD 504 (+22.9%).
Capacity - up significantly from one month ago (+9.2%)

Trade view: FAR EAST to US EAST COAST

Week-on-week:
Spot rates - increased to USD 3,715 by Jan 15 (+1.3%) from a week ago.
Capacity - big weekly jump (+9.9%).

Month-on-month:
Spot rates - notably higher, +USD 624 (+20.2%).
Capacity - largest uptick across all trade lanes from mid-December, 27,955 TEU (+16.6%).

Trade view: FAR EAST to NORTH EUROPE

Week-on-week:
Spot rates - up to USD 2 862, a gentle rise since Jan 8 (+1.2%).

Capacity - ticked up gently (+1.3%).

Month-on-month:
Spot rates - uptick was the lowest amongst the main hauls out of Asia, up +16.6%.
Capacity - by and large unchanged from a month ago, adding just 5,058 TEU (+1.6%).

Trade view: FAR EAST to MEDITERRANEAN

Week-on-week:
Spot rates - slid to USD 4,735 by Jan 15 (-0.6%).
Capacity - growth of 4.7% for the week proved to exceed that of demand.

Month-on-month:
Spot rates - up sizably by USD 693 (+17.1%)

Capacity - up +11.2% tells us demand stays strong. A continuation from 2025.

Trade view: NORTH EUROPE to US EAST COAST

Week-on-week:
Spot rates - modest increase of USD 11 (+0.7%), and basically unchanged during January. Capacity - notably dropped (-1.8%) from a week ago. Lowest since February 2022.

Month-on-month:
Spot rates - slightly up +USD 28 (+1.8%).
Capacity – big decrease from mid-December, by as much a 12,188 TEU (-26.9%).

The latest average spot rate data is provided in the attached weekly rate and chart files for 15 January 2026.

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst – insight on Maersk Red Sea announcement:

"Maersk has generally been the most risk averse out of the major carriers regarding a return to the Red Sea, so this is a turning point.

"The services announced by Maersk as returning to the Suez Canal are smaller ships operating outside an alliance, but the fact it is Maersk making this move is highly significant.

"Xeneta data has shown Maersk testing the water in recent weeks with ships scheduled to sail around the Cape of Good Hope ‘going dark’ and instead sailing through the Red Sea. Clearly these sailings were deemed successful and the risk now low enough to announce services through the region on official schedules.

"This does not mean an immediate large-scale return of container shipping to the Red Sea region. Depending on how quickly carriers want to move, it could take three to five months for schedules via Suez Canal to be fully reinstated. We could also see significant disruption and port congestion during that time as services adjust to new routes and transit times.

"A large-scale return to shorter sailing distances via Suez Canal would effectively free up 6-8% of global container shipping capacity. The implications of this are clear for both carriers and shippers, with overcapacity placing significant downward pressure on freight rates.

"Average spot rates from Far East are down 43% into US East Coast and 30% into North Europe compared to a year ago, while long term rates are expected to fall back to pre-Red Sea crisis levels in December 2023 even without a largescale return to Red Sea."

Ends

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